The housing market

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  • brchixwing

    Sharpshooter
    Rating - 100%
    75   0   0
    Nov 13, 2016
    326
    12
    Indianapolis
    Whereabouts are you looking? Not news but the demand situation is solid because job market has been strong and interest rates are still low (but fed lifting slowly).
    The supply situation is likely tight around the $100-150K range because new builds have been focused on higher price points but the demand is still strong.

    I have bought close to a dozen homes in Indy (for rental) in the past year, there is a huge urbanization trend, people are moving closer to the city center.
    This makes a lot of the real estate near the city look like a bubble but its really a shift in preference, i.e. yuppies and empty nesters buying up fountain square flips.

    The overall price situation is hot as you indicate from low inventory, but most people don't account for 3 major factors since the last recession
    1) money printing 2) low interest rates (and now tax cuts) 3) large scale investors buying single family rentals
    I can elaborate for hours but just figure all the governments in the world including ours have printed a ton of money like Germany did after WW1.
    This will lead to rampant inflation some day, where people are much better off owning assets that appreciate with inflation, driving up demand.
    Low interest rates have made it cheap & easy for creditworthy people and institutions to borrow money, driving up demand.
    Institutions (wall street) and individual investors have been using single family rental properties as cash flowing investments, driving up demand.
    (There are still many rentals you can buy in Indy that will return over 10%/year even after accounting for property management)

    Correction will come when we see a left wing administration, and the US economy turn weaker relative to the other mature economies of the world.
    Until then, the demand environment will be pretty strong in Indiana, companies are still moving here and hiring (now for tech jobs too).
    Again there are always black swans, i.e. if we actually get into a serious trade war and Trump can't find middle ground with China.



    My wife and I have been looking at houses. Nothing serious, just for fun. We’d like to find a larger house someday though. We have 2 baby boys now, and our 2 bedroom house is now feeling a little cramped.

    I have seen $100,000 houses go for $150,000, within a couple days of being listed. It’s so crazy right now. My aunt, who is a realtor, told me that there are 10 houses for sale and 50 people looking to buy. House prices are going thru the roof. And she has sold a couple of houses the same day she listed them.

    I have also been told that now isn’t a good time to buy anyway. The majority of the people that have bought recently will be under water because house prices will eventually drop. I dunno if that’s true, but surely this housing craze will end sometime, right?



    As for us, we’ll probably try to get someone to come out and give us a price to add on. Or just buy bunk beds. I’m also rather fond of my low mortgage payment.
     

    FWP9MM

    Sharpshooter
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    9   0   0
    Aug 22, 2010
    437
    18
    Bluffton
    The market has been hot for awhile now. My wife and I sold our house September of 2014, 4 days on the market and sold at full asking price. We did a 6 month lease at an apartment to give us time to find what we wanted (not in an addition and at least 1.5 acres) We luckily found our current house after 3.5 months. We had a good realtor that helped negotiate on our behalf. Even though our offer was slightly lower, we did not have any contingency on selling a house.

    My wife and I occasionally look for fun, in which we haven’t found anything comparable to what we have for the price we paid. Although we could probably sell and make a $30,000+ profit, we would spend more money trying to find something comparable. We will soon have 3 boys on a room. They will eventually have bunk beds.

    BTW: When did it become so horrible to have kids share a room?
     

    seedubs1

    Master
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    24   0   0
    Jan 17, 2013
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    Market is nuts. I don't ever remember having offers over asking price in small towns in IN. That's yuppy east and west coast BS.

    Seems anything under $150k that isn't a meth house is sold the day it listed. I bought last year and multiple houses I looked at were sold before they were even listed.

    My theory:
    1) Lots of new house buyers because they're fed up with stupid high rent. The Millenials are realizing that they can pay a mortgage on a nice house cheaper than paying rent for a decent place.
    2) Lots of land lords buying up cheap single family homes to rent since you can rent for double your mortgage payment.
     

    lovemachine

    Grandmaster
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    17   0   0
    Dec 14, 2009
    15,601
    119
    Indiana
    The market has been hot for awhile now. My wife and I sold our house September of 2014, 4 days on the market and sold at full asking price. We did a 6 month lease at an apartment to give us time to find what we wanted (not in an addition and at least 1.5 acres) We luckily found our current house after 3.5 months. We had a good realtor that helped negotiate on our behalf. Even though our offer was slightly lower, we did not have any contingency on selling a house.

    My wife and I occasionally look for fun, in which we haven’t found anything comparable to what we have for the price we paid. Although we could probably sell and make a $30,000+ profit, we would spend more money trying to find something comparable. We will soon have 3 boys on a room. They will eventually have bunk beds.

    BTW: When did it become so horrible to have kids share a room?

    I never did say it was so horrible for kids to share a room....

    Market is nuts. I don't ever remember having offers over asking price in small towns in IN. That's yuppy east and west coast BS.

    Seems anything under $150k that isn't a meth house is sold the day it listed. I bought last year and multiple houses I looked at were sold before they were even listed.

    My theory:
    1) Lots of new house buyers because they're fed up with stupid high rent. The Millenials are realizing that they can pay a mortgage on a nice house cheaper than paying rent for a decent place.
    2) Lots of land lords buying up cheap single family homes to rent since you can rent for double your mortgage payment.

    In my area, it's not just $150k homes selling fast. It's $200k, $250K, etc....


    My theory is, the economy is great right now. People, businesses, are very busy. I talk to multiple salesman, truckers, delivery drivers all the time. They tell me that they haven't seen it this busy in a very long time. People are working over time. People are getting paid more because of it.

    I think they are thinking they can afford nicer homes. But there may come a time when the over time isn't there anymore. Then they will realize they made a mistake, and won't be able to afford their new $200K+ house anymore.
     

    Tactically Fat

    Grandmaster
    Site Supporter
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    23   0   0
    Oct 8, 2014
    8,346
    113
    Indiana
    Then they will realize they made a mistake, and won't be able to afford their new $200K+ house anymore.

    A) I definitely believe that we're headed towards another housing bubble. It is somewhat cyclical. It just won't be a sub-prime lending issue/crash like the last time.
    B) Depending on where someone may be in their current mortgage, a new mortgage on a more expensive house may be the exact same payments. If they have $100k equity on a $150k note, then a $50k down payment on a $200k house should net them roughly the same mortgage expenses. Yes, that's overly simple, I get it.
     

    seedubs1

    Master
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    Jan 17, 2013
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    Yup.....and banks are being MUCH more careful. Lots of people getting turned down for loans.

    Not only that, people are being more careful about what type of loan they take. Pretty much every single person I talk to takes a fixed rate 15 year loan these days.

    A) I definitely believe that we're headed towards another housing bubble. It is somewhat cyclical. It just won't be a sub-prime lending issue/crash like the last time.
    B) Depending on where someone may be in their current mortgage, a new mortgage on a more expensive house may be the exact same payments. If they have $100k equity on a $150k note, then a $50k down payment on a $200k house should net them roughly the same mortgage expenses. Yes, that's overly simple, I get it.
     

    Nevermore

    Marksman
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    0   0   0
    Feb 27, 2018
    174
    28
    Somewhere
    The market is extremely hot right now, has been for a goodly bit. I buy and sell real estate for a living, and it's one of the hottest markets I've ever seen all up and down the price scales. I've had trouble getting inventory even in crap areas with crap houses: they still have 6 offers, banks are waiting 2 weeks or more to collect all their offers before even beginning to sort through them etc. Interest rates are in the toilet, and we've got so many lovely programs giving down payment "assistance" that if you've got a pulse and a halfway decent credit score you're in. The key for investors like myself at this point is not buying in to the top of this madness and getting left holding the bag when 2008 2.0 kicks in.
     

    lovemachine

    Grandmaster
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    17   0   0
    Dec 14, 2009
    15,601
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    Indiana
    Yup.....and banks are being MUCH more careful. Lots of people getting turned down for loans.

    Not only that, people are being more careful about what type of loan they take. Pretty much every single person I talk to takes a fixed rate 15 year loan these days.

    I’m just trying to be careful of how much my mortgage payment will be. Have no desire of getting a $1k payment. Yikes.
     

    FWP9MM

    Sharpshooter
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    9   0   0
    Aug 22, 2010
    437
    18
    Bluffton
    I never did say it was so horrible for kids to share a room....
    .

    I know you didn’t!
    I was referring to society in general.

    I will soon have three boys that will be sharing a bedroom. I have been asked by numerous people how is that going to work.... are you going to move or add on. My response is always “it will work for at least 6 boys, two bunk beds will pull out trundle beds”.
     

    seedubs1

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    24   0   0
    Jan 17, 2013
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    Rent is $1k here for a single bedroom in the nice areas. $600 minimum for a dumpy place where you might get stabbed.

    Millenials are about fed up with the stupid high rent prices. They're figuring it out and starting to buy houses.

    I’m just trying to be careful of how much my mortgage payment will be. Have no desire of getting a $1k payment. Yikes.
     

    lovemachine

    Grandmaster
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    17   0   0
    Dec 14, 2009
    15,601
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    Indiana
    Rent is $1k here for a single bedroom in the nice areas. $600 minimum for a dumpy place where you might get stabbed.

    Millenials are about fed up with the stupid high rent prices. They're figuring it out and starting to buy houses.

    Wow that’s high. Both are higher than my current mortgage payment.
     

    eldirector

    Grandmaster
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    10   0   0
    Apr 29, 2009
    14,677
    113
    Brownsburg, IN
    Same here, too. Mortgage + property taxes is a few hundred less MONTHLY than my old rent payment. Even factoring in repairs and upgrades, and I'm money ahead just on monthly expenses. Can't wait to OWN this thing (well, as much as you really OWN anything), and get to pocket that cash as well.

    A house at the end of or street (1200 sqft 3 bed / 2 bath ranch) rents for $1500 / month PLUS utilities.
     

    lovemachine

    Grandmaster
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    17   0   0
    Dec 14, 2009
    15,601
    119
    Indiana
    Same here, too. Mortgage + property taxes is a few hundred less MONTHLY than my old rent payment. Even factoring in repairs and upgrades, and I'm money ahead just on monthly expenses. Can't wait to OWN this thing (well, as much as you really OWN anything), and get to pocket that cash as well.

    A house at the end of or street (1200 sqft 3 bed / 2 bath ranch) rents for $1500 / month PLUS utilities.

    You have a nice neighborhood and even nicer house.
     

    Expat

    Pdub
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    23   0   0
    Feb 27, 2010
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    Michiana
    I have heard of people up here in Elkhart County getting offers over their original asking price. A nice place comes on the market and they get bidding wars.
     

    fordmanchris

    Marksman
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    5   0   0
    Oct 19, 2008
    274
    18
    Westfield
    My wife and I rent right now and want to buy, but we aren't even sure we will be able to find anything. We pay right at $1000 a month to rent a 4 bdrm right now which isn't too bad, but we can't live here much longer. I know prices are high, but I'm worried if we wait and rent elsewhere, interest rates will jump and any it will be a wash on any money we save waiting for prices to drop. We plan to make larger or even double payments because I don't like being in debt. I figure with that we would save on interest and help negate the money we are paying by buying in a high market.
     

    seedubs1

    Master
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    Jan 17, 2013
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    You are literally burning $12k a year right now. Waiting to get in the market at a low spot is not going to negate burning that much in rent. If you want a house, I’d go ahead and get in the market.....but that’s just my opinion.

    Maybe just get a cheap starter house if you’re worried about buying in a high market.

    Personally, I don’t see the market going down in the next 5 years. You’ll burn $60k in rent in that time if you kept waiting for the market to drop.

    My wife and I rent right now and want to buy, but we aren't even sure we will be able to find anything. We pay right at $1000 a month to rent a 4 bdrm right now which isn't too bad, but we can't live here much longer. I know prices are high, but I'm worried if we wait and rent elsewhere, interest rates will jump and any it will be a wash on any money we save waiting for prices to drop. We plan to make larger or even double payments because I don't like being in debt. I figure with that we would save on interest and help negate the money we are paying by buying in a high market.
     

    fordmanchris

    Marksman
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    5   0   0
    Oct 19, 2008
    274
    18
    Westfield
    Yeah, that's my thought as well. We have been in mind of a unique and crappy situation with medical issues and stuff holding us back from progressing in life. We are finally starting to get back on our feet. We have 4 small children, but I'm the type that would rather have a larger yard and smaller house. My wife is finishing her mba, but it's having a hard time finding a job. She finally got offered a 3 month training with intent to hire after, but at a pretty low pay. We are hoping it goes up after training. We see it as better than nothing though for now. We applied for a mortgage and were told as soon as she got an offer letter then we could buy. So now it's just a waiting game!
     

    ghuns

    Grandmaster
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    2   0   0
    Nov 22, 2011
    9,340
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    Anything housing related is crazy right now. When I scheduled a roofer earlier this spring, he was over 2 months out. Now looking for a contractor to do some siding and a build a porch/deck. A couple are a month out, to show up for an estimate.:n00b:
     
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