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Thread: Coronavirus II

  1. #11
    Da PinkFather jedi's Avatar

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    .

  2. #12
    Master nonobaddog's Avatar

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    IBTL
    #35887

  3. #13
    Da PinkFather jedi's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ballstater98 View Post
    Covid-19 - ...so far PoCO has 0 as of today.
    #fakenews
    Cant trust china

  4. #14
    Grandmaster IndyBeerman's Avatar

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    In again for the win.
    Don't be that Richard, nobody likes a smart ass Richard, there's way more than we need here.


    Trump reaffirms my decision everyday voting for him as President and my
    reason for voting for him again in 2020.



    Member#630, geez I've been here a while.

  5. #15
    Marksman
    Brian's Surplus's Avatar

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    I'll leave a copy of an email I just received from Harvey V. Fineberg, who was recently named as the Chair of Standing Committee requested by The White House in response to Coronavirus.



    Primer on SARS-CoV-2 (the virus) and COVID-19 (the disease caused by the virus).

    Five reasons why SARS-CoV-2 is dangerous:

    1. It is readily transmitted from human to human. Not all viruses that transfer from one species to another (as this one did to get into humans) will be efficient in moving from individual to individual in the new species, but this one is. In the early stage of the outbreak in Wuhan, it was estimated that each person infected 3.85 others on average. Suppose the virus can infect these many in an average of four days. That's 15 generations of growth in two months. If it kept up that pace unabated (which it won't for a variety of reasons, including running out of new persons to infect) the virus would have infected more than the entire US population in the space of two months.

    2. Everyone is vulnerable. Since this is a new virus, no one has pre-existing immunity.

    3. Infected persons can transmit the virus in the pre-symptomatic phase. Average incubation (from infection to first symptoms) is about 5 days. A person may feel perfectly well and still be capable of transmitting the virus to someone else. Children are less likely than adults to develop clinical disease, and it is uncertain how important children can be in transmitting the virus to others. (In the case of influenza, another respiratory virus, children are important transmitters of virus to adults.)

    4. It can cause severe disease and many deaths. We have all heard many times that older persons and those with chronic disease are more likely to die from this infection, and that is true. However, disease can also be severe in younger adults: the most recent CDC figures showed that 40 percent of those hospitalized with coronavirus in the U.S. to date are under 50 years of age. A recent modeling exercise at Imperial College London projected the possibility of more than 1 million deaths in the U.S.

    5. There is no specific, effective treatment. Care of seriously ill patients today is mainly supportive care for pulmonary failure. Severely ill patients may also experience heart failure. A number of experimental antiviral drugs are under development and some current medicines (such as hydroxychloroqine, used to treat malaria and some other conditions, and remdesivir, originally developed as a potential Ebola treatment) are being tried, but none has yet demonstrated clinical efficacy.

    On top of all this, we are way behind on testing, which is a serious deficiency. if you are a patient in San Francisco today and lucky enough to be tested for SARS-CoV-2, it will take five days to receive a result. Just this morning, the Washington Post reported that a new, point-of-care (bedside) test was authorized by the FDA, and we'll see how quickly this can come on line and scale up. Each diagnostic test has to be evaluated for producing false positives and false negatives, so that the results can be probabilistically interpreted properly.

    And, finally, as we've heard repeatedly, a vaccine, if one can be successfully developed, is at least 12-18 months from readiness for deployment in the general population

    Three ways SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted:

    1. Respiratory droplets. This is the spray you can feel when someone talks, laughs, coughs or sneezes nearby.

    2. Aerosol. These are tiny droplet nucleii that are small enough (< 5 microns) to be suspended in air for hours at a time. You can breathe them in after the infected person has left the vicinity.

    3. Surface fomites. Virus-laden droplets or fingers may touch a surface and then another person touches the same surface or hand and that second person conveys the virus to a mucous membrane on their mouth, nose or eyes. Intact skin is pretty good barrier against the virus, but the virus can cross mucous membranes. Then it's off to the races.

    It is not completely clear how much each of these modes of transfer contribute, but they are all plausible. A recent study found that viable SARS-CoV-2 virus could remain suspended in aerosol for three hours. Viable virus could be cultured from contaminated surfaces for anywhere from four hours (copper) to 3 days (stainless steel, plastic). Days after patients left the cruise ship Diamond Princess, SARS-CoV-2 RNA could be detected in various parts of their cabins and bathrooms.

    Attempting to interrupt these means of transmission is the basis for repeated advice to wash your hands frequently and to use hand cleaner with at least 60 percent alcohol. This also underlies recommendations and mandates for "physical distancing" as a preventive. (I prefer to say "physical distancing" to "social distancing" since the trick is to remain socially connected while keeping at a physical distance.) Avoiding crowds, or even small groups, is simply a matter of lowering your risk of encountering an infected individual whose air droplet or aerosol or recently contaminated surface can infect others.

    You asked how long are these physical distancing measure going to last (we are beyond the idea of containment, or isolation of all infected individuals, though that is an important, continuing element in coping with the epidemic). My answer is at least a couple of months and possibly longer, if folks continue to fall ill from this virus. In Wuhan, where they turned the corner against the virus in a couple of months, their successful strategies consisted of more than just physical distancing--they stressed rapid diagnosis, isolation of patients, contact tracing, and separation of those exposed, but not yet sick, from the rest of the population (commandeering hotels and dorms for the purpose). It is not clear how much of this Americans would be willing or capable of doing, but the severity of the epidemic will dictate the duration and nature of the needed response.

    If you are interested in more information, you could check out our letter on social distancing at nationalacademies.org/our-work/standing-committee-on-emerging-infectious-diseases-and-21st-century-health-threats. A generally reliable source on the COVID-19 epidemic is the CDC's integrated government web site at www.coronavirus.gov

    Keep your physical distance. Stay socially connected.
    BRIAN'S SURPLUS
    5925 E 00 NS
    Greentown, IN 46936
    Open Monday through Saturday 11am - 5:30pm, or by appointment. Closed Sunday.

    765-628-3196
    www.brianssurplus.com


  6. #16
    Grandmaster jsharmon7's Avatar

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    Is the coronovius worse than the coronavirus?
    'Til that time I will remain, 'til the sinners lay down with the saints.

  7. #17
    Expert

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsharmon7 View Post
    Is the coronovius worse than the coronavirus?
    BTDT

  8. #18
    Master Cygnus's Avatar

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    IBTLD!
    Quick to judge,Quick to anger,Slow to understand Ignorance and prejudice And fear walk hand in hand



  9. #19
    . . . GPIA7R's Avatar

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    But we still need a coronavirus thread

    If you're intellectually honest and advocate for a system that controls people, turn over the keys to your enemies for a dry run.

  10. #20
    I still care....Really
    churchmouse's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsharmon7 View Post
    Is the coronovius worse than the coronavirus?
    No idea what you are talking about.....

    AKA..Thor. Odin son. God of thunder.
    But you can call me John.....Force.

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