2016 Electoral College polling thread

[T.Lex]

how can Hillary do well in PA when she slams the coal industry and destroys those families? Is it pure urban center voting or loyal unions?

Yes, probably both.

But it must also be said that part of the issue is Trump. He's not going to connect well with the working class people in both urban and rural PA.

He is overachieving in OH, and I'll give him credit for that. I had thought that his appeal there would carry over to PA. But, since HRC is so strong in NY and the PA-NY connection is pretty strong, that might be a serious obstacle for him.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Wow.

Clinton +6 in North Carolina, per new Elon poll. Cooper+4 and Senate tied

https://www.elon.edu/E/elon-poll/poll-archive/100416.html

(change from last):
Clinton 45 (+2)
Trump 39 (-5)
Johnson 9 (+3)

If Trump can't win North Carolina, this is over.

 

[MisterChester]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/783266807192948737

To put this in perspective, Obama won about 100k more early votes than Romney in Florida.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Monmouth Poll Pennsylvania survey:

Clinton 50
Trump 40
Johnson 5
Stein 2

Toomey 46
McGinty 46

Poll: Clinton up 10 points in Pennsylvania - POLITICO

 

[T.Lex]

A new poll in NC has it closer than the others - HRC +2, within the MOE. My gut tells me it'll still break for Trump, but they'll have to keep up the efforts there.

Best case scenario for Trump right now has HRC at 274 EC delegates. Now, if he can get the 5 NM delegates.....

 

[MisterChester]

A new poll in NC has it closer than the others - HRC +2, within the MOE. My gut tells me it'll still break for Trump, but they'll have to keep up the efforts there.

Best case scenario for Trump right now has HRC at 274 EC delegates. Now, if he can get the 5 NM delegates.....

Trump has a better chance in Colorado. Hillary's comments on maurijuana aren't helping her there.

 

[T.Lex]

Trump has a better chance in Colorado. Hillary's comments on maurijuana aren't helping her there.

Well, the last polling had her about 2x the MOE. That's usually pretty safe.

NV is still pretty tight.

 

[MisterChester]

Well, the last polling had her about 2x the MOE. That's usually pretty safe.

NV is still pretty tight.

I mean compared to NM. Colorado will go red before NM does.

 

[T.Lex]

Ah, got it. Yeah, probably.

More possibly bad news. HRC +2 in a new poll from OH. Too soon to tell if its a trend, obviously.

 

[T.Lex]

New poll has Trump nominally (+1) ahead in FL. In context, the post-debate polling there basically stays within the MOE, so its still a tie.

Makes for a tough strategic decision in the last month of the campaign: commit to winning FL, or spread out and try to treat all the battleground states the same.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Detroit Free Press/WXYZ
Michigan likely voters

Clinton 43%
Trump 32
Johnson 10
Stein 3
undecided 12

Poll: Clinton retakes 11-point lead over Trump in Michigan

Also Clinton up 3 in Florida

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...clinton-has-slight-lead-over-trump-in-florida

 

[T.Lex]

New poll has HRC leading in AZ, but within the MOE. That's like those signs that say "falling rocks" - an avalanche might be coming.

 

[jamil]

What will the Trump supporters do if it is a landslide victory for Hitlery? I hope it's not, but given the fear about Trump, I just see a lot of people having great difficulty accepting Trump as a serious candidate. That it's even this close is only a testament to how much people fear a Hillary presidency, and that has zero to do with her gender.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

What will the Trump supporters do if it is a landslide victory for Hitlery?

My guess: Rush to edit a lot of old INGO posts.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

National, PRRI/Atlantic Survey:

Clinton 47 (+6)
Trump 41
Johnson 3

A 6 point shift toward Clinton in a week

http://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/PRRI-Atlantic-Survey-Topline.pdf

 

[T.Lex]

****.

WTHR/Howey now reporting that Trump is up by 5 in Indiana with a 4 pt. MOE.

Dammit.

 

[Ericpwp]

So much for all those posts about not voting for Trump doesn't matter in Indiana.

 

[T.Lex]

So much for all those posts about not voting for Trump doesn't matter in Indiana.

I'm not totally there, yet, but this looks ominous.

But, from another perspective, if Trump can't win Indiana, he can't win it all.

ETA:
If I [****in] have to [****in] vote for [****in] Trump just to [****in] help him win Indiana, I'm going to be [****in] madder than hell and probably not going to [****in] put up with his [****in] ****.

 

[MisterChester]

What will the Trump supporters do if it is a landslide victory for Hitlery? I hope it's not, but given the fear about Trump, I just see a lot of people having great difficulty accepting Trump as a serious candidate. That it's even this close is only a testament to how much people fear a Hillary presidency, and that has zero to do with her gender.

We are going to stay away from the bench-press at our local gym.

 

[Ericpwp]

I think he can win the general if he pulls his head out of his butt.