Chinese terra-forming in the South China Sea

[NKBJ]

The Brits are talking about patrolling the neo-islands with the US and the Chinese say that they expect to take out carriers.
Is this a great world or what?

 

[Thor]

[h=1]PLA bombers, jet fighters star in Beijing’s ‘Happy Lunar New Year’ video message to Taiwan[/h]

• Propaganda film leaves little to the imagination as images of military aircraft are set against shots of Taiwanese landmarks
• Soundtrack calls for ‘Brothers and sisters’ to ‘return [and] reunite’

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mil...7.01.19&utm_term=Editorial - Early Bird Brief

The defence ministry in Taipei responded to the PLA film by releasing a 90-second video of its own, titled Freedom Is Not Free, on Monday on Facebook.

 

[Thor]

[h=1]China will build 4 nuclear aircraft carriers in drive to catch US Navy, experts say[/h]

• Beijing expected to have at least six aircraft carrier battle groups by 2035 after it prioritized modernizing its navy
• Nuclear-powered carriers thought to be equipped with electromagnetic launch catapults similar to those of the US

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mil...7.01.19&utm_term=Editorial - Early Bird Brief

Being designed no doubt with a lot of stolen technology. A Chinese 'student' was just arrested at NAS Key West for taking pictures of the installation...

 

[T.Lex]

Looks like the Spruance and the Preble did another FON patrol through the Spratlys.

I'll continue to give Trump credit for keeping up the pressure in that area of the world.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/10/politics/us-ships-south-china-sea/index.html

 

[Thor]

And they apparently weren't happy about it:

"The related moves by US warships violated China's sovereignty, and undermined peace, security and sound order in relevant waters," Hua said.

She said, “China has indisputable sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea, including the Second Thomas Shoal, Mischief Reef, and the adjacent waters…China respects and safeguards freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea according to international law, while firmly opposes any country's attempts at jeopardizing the sovereignty and security of littoral countries under the pretext of such freedom.”

"The Chinese side urges the United States to stop such provocative moves immediately, and earnestly respect efforts of the countries in the region in preserving peace and stability in the South China Sea," she said, adding that China will take every necessary measure to resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and security, as well as peace and stability in the South China Sea.

The response was typical but also marks the first time that a Chinese Foreign Ministry talking head mentioned by name a shoal that China does not occupy...but still claims. The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea found that Mischief Reef and the three Thomas Shoals were part of the Philippine islands. Our FON passed between Mischief Reef (occupied by the ChiComs) and the Second Thomas Shoal which has had a Philippine Marine Corps presence since 1999.

 

[T.Lex]

Hey Thor,

Remember that P-3 that got bumped and landed on Hainan? I wonder where that fits into the Chinese policy narrative. They may view that as a past successful defense of that area.

I haven't seen it explicitly mentioned in a long time, but it has to be part of the thinking for both sides.

 

[actaeon277]

Indisputable.

I don't think they know what that means.

 

[Thor]

Hey Thor,

Remember that P-3 that got bumped and landed on Hainan? I wonder where that fits into the Chinese policy narrative. They may view that as a past successful defense of that area.

I haven't seen it explicitly mentioned in a long time, but it has to be part of the thinking for both sides.

They would definitely view that as a win even though they lost a jet in the deal. Their intelligence service got to do a thorough combing of the inside of a P3 (a treasure trove of data which the crew did not destroy), interrogated the crew and said it was our fault for violating their sovereignty. They named their pilot "Guardian of Territorial Airspace and Waters". Clinton's response was weak at best.

 

[T.Lex]

Ever since the "sink 2 carriers" comments, I've been going back to that P-3 incident. It seems to me that the Chinese may be over-emphasizing whatever insight they think they got about us.

 

[Thor]

Indisputable.

I don't think they know what that means.

Lost in translation? They also seem to have a very tenuous grasp of international law.

 

[Thor]

Ever since the "sink 2 carriers" comments, I've been going back to that P-3 incident. It seems to me that the Chinese may be over-emphasizing whatever insight they think they got about us.

Perhaps they think they are taking the inscrutable oriental 'long view of history'...so long they can't see the pitfalls immediately in front of them. They are marching to create Xi's China Dream and perchance believe that no on would dare oppose them. They are on a timeline after all.

 

[Thor]

Planning future FON to include other nations in opposition to the ChiComs land grabs.

https://news.usni.org/2019/02/12/41...bb 2-13&utm_term=Editorial - Early Bird Brief

In the comments a guy from the Philippines is begging to be included.

 

[T.Lex]

Taiwan sounding a bell (in a hurricane) about China's military growth.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/19/asia/tsai-ing-wen-china-us-interview-intl/index.html

(Sorry for the cnn link, but it appears to be an exclusive - nothing on the BBC yet.)

In an exclusive interview with CNN, Tsai said the military threat posed by China was growing "every day" in line with a more assertive foreign policy under its President Xi Jinping.
"If it's Taiwan today, people should ask who's next? Any country in the region -- if it no longer wants to submit to the will of China, they would face similar military threats," said Tsai.

 

[Thor]

They have also built forts in Tajikistan and Afghanistan...and deny it (here's a satellite picture...nope not us; here's a video of uniformed ChiCom soldiers shopping near the fort...no idea what you're talking about). They demand respect for what they claim sovereignty over while ignoring anyone else's claim. No one in the region (for now) is safe from their greed.

 

[T.Lex]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/feb/25/navy-warships-steam-through-taiwan-straits-ahead-c/

USN sailing through the Taiwan Strait.

I've gotta hand it to Trump. My compliments to him may be limited to this thread, but IMHO he's getting a whole bunch more right in this area of foreign policy than he's getting wrong.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

US vows to defend the Philippines against "armed attack" in the disputed South China Sea.

 

[T.Lex]

Vietnam and Indonesia also appear to be flexing some muscle by claiming some of the reefs as fishing grounds.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosm...and-vietnam-prove-duterte-wrong/#5850a05b1e85

Indonesia joined Vietnam recently to challenge Duterte’s doctrine in the South China Sea.
That’s the notion that any Asian-Pacific country that dares to tame Beijing’s ambitions to control the entire South China Sea will face war with China.
This week, Indonesia drew a “red line” in the South China Sea establishing fishing rights in areas where China claims “overlapping” rights, according to BenarNews.

While not exactly close allies of ours, I think the sense is that if China is too aggressive with them, we might intervene.

 

[Thor]

Vietnam has an oil development going on in the SCS that the ChiComs have said is their property and they will disrupt it.

 

[Thor]

Vietnam and Indonesia also appear to be flexing some muscle by claiming some of the reefs as fishing grounds.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosm...and-vietnam-prove-duterte-wrong/#5850a05b1e85

While not exactly close allies of ours, I think the sense is that if China is too aggressive with them, we might intervene.

Now this is a stupid statement: “Although China does not want to usurp the United States’ position as the leader of the global order, its actual aim is nearly as consequential,” says Oriana Skylar Mastro. Xi has said publicly...and the published Xi Thought that that is exactly what he wants to do.

 

[T.Lex]

Now this is a stupid statement: “Although China does not want to usurp the United States’ position as the leader of the global order, its actual aim is nearly as consequential,” says Oriana Skylar Mastro. Xi has said publicly...and the published Xi Thought that that is exactly what he wants to do.

Yeah, I suspect that quote was taken a bit out of context, or at least lacking in nuance. (Assuming the speaker is at all familiar with the topic.)

I took that to mean more like, in the near-term, China doesn't want to be the global leader. Rather, China intends on becoming the regional Pacific leader. Which, as Mastro says, is "nearly as consequential."

It is a matter of emphasis. By controlling the Pacific, that country necessarily becomes a global leader, although perhaps not THE global leader. Although I'm not sure what the practical difference would be.