Chinese terra-forming in the South China Sea

[T.Lex]

How long after the Chinese sank one would it take before their entire fleet was a reef?

Weeks, if ever.

We don't have the resources we once did. And, arguably, they are ahead of us in certain high altitude weapons technology. Unless the X-37 has capabilities we are not aware of, it would take us time to track down their entire fleet.

Now, if they were to sink one of ours, their carrier would sink within a few days, I suspect. They've got 50+ submarines, and probably double that in pretty big boats. (That's not intended to be a technical class of warship, just an attempt to capture the ships that could cause us trouble.)

Its a big ocean.

 

[Birds Away]

Weeks, if ever.

We don't have the resources we once did. And, arguably, they are ahead of us in certain high altitude weapons technology. Unless the X-37 has capabilities we are not aware of, it would take us time to track down their entire fleet.

Now, if they were to sink one of ours, their carrier would sink within a few days, I suspect. They've got 50+ submarines, and probably double that in pretty big boats. (That's not intended to be a technical class of warship, just an attempt to capture the ships that could cause us trouble.)

Its a big ocean.

Proficiency at Naval Warfare is not something that can be gained overnight. Having a certain number and type of platform says nothing about the capabilities of that platform. I wouldn't become to easily enamored with their weapons technology until I really saw what it could do in an actual application. The U.S. Navy isn't worried about their carrier and is, so far, unimpressed with their naval warfighting capabilities. I don't say that because I read it in a book or magazine.

 

[Birds Away]

Oh, and the ocean isn't as big as one would imagine.

 

[T.Lex]

Proficiency at Naval Warfare is not something that can be gained overnight. Having a certain number and type of platform says nothing about the capabilities of that platform. I wouldn't become to easily enamored with their weapons technology until I really saw what it could do in an actual application.

Yeah, but that kinda goes both ways. It's been what - 4 generations? - since we've gone against an enemy carrier? Our carrier ops are the best in the world. But the world has also changed. No one has experience with carrier-killer missiles that have been developed.

The U.S. Navy isn't worried about their carrier and is, so far, unimpressed with their naval warfighting capabilities. I don't say that because I read it in a book or magazine.

Frankly, that's what bothers me. The great-grandfathers of those planners didn't accurately predict Japanese navy capabilities either.

Oh, and the ocean isn't as big as one would imagine.

Either way, it is getting more crowded.

 

[Birds Away]

Yeah, but that kinda goes both ways. It's been what - 4 generations? - since we've gone against an enemy carrier? Our carrier ops are the best in the world. But the world has also changed. No one has experience with carrier-killer missiles that have been developed.

Performing over the horizon targeting, with any weapon, is one of the most difficult disciplines within the spectrum of naval warfare. Being able to successfully put the ordnance on target in an exercise is challenging. Doing so while the most capable navy in the world is performing counter-targeting against you is extraordinarily difficult. The Chinese Army Navy isn't there yet. I doubt if they will be within the next couple of decades.

Frankly, that's what bothers me. The great-grandfathers of those planners didn't accurately predict Japanese navy capabilities either.

It's a completely different world.

Either way, it is getting more crowded.

It is indeed. But, there are no shortcuts to gaining proficiency in these very demanding skillsets. It will take them time. Lots of time.

 

[T.Lex]

It is indeed. But, there are no shortcuts to gaining proficiency in these very demanding skillsets. It will take them time. Lots of time.

Time and bodies. They have lots of the latter. And, from what I can tell, enough of the former.

In terms of carrier ops, they've been watching us for a long time, and for several years have had stand-in carrier training areas. There is a steep learning curve with these, but they are progressing along it.

So here's a question, how long do you think before the Chinese have moved from toddler to young adult in terms of their navy? 5 years? 10 years?

I think their focus will continue to be on Taiwan (they have hundreds of LSTs as I recall). The South China Sea is obviously important to them, but I think their doctrine will have that area self-sufficient in terms of defense.

 

[Birds Away]

They are building two indigenous aircraft carriers that seem to mirror the ex Soviet Kuznetsov class they are currently operating. This carrier design only affords for about 20 fixed wing aircraft and having a ski jump rather than catapults severely limits the onboard stores of fuel and weapons for those aircraft. So, at best the carrier could be used to slightly extend an land based air umbrella (such as over Taiwain). But, it isn't that simple. The carrier has no onboard early warning or electronic warfare aircraft. It is simply a base for 20 rather mediocre fighters with mediocre range and weapons capabilities. It's hard to imagine a U.S. carrier airwing having too much trouble dealing with that. What I think they are doing is developing a very substantial training base (three carriers) to develop a deep pool of qualified carrier pilots for the next generation of Chinese carriers. I believe this is all seed work for what they want to be in 20 years.

 

[T.Lex]

In terms of carrier based AWACS, that is a longer runway (pardon the pun).

I think the 20 years horizon gets them to fairly equal footing with us in their area of the Pacific, including the SCS. Until then, this carrier can rely on land based (including the new SCS islands) and satellite based early warning. Like you say, in terms of doctrine, this carrier could protect the "outside" of an invasion of Taiwan while the land based a/c did the heavy lifting.

Otherwise, this carrier simply projects strength on milk runs to the SCS. We can put 2 carriers (I think) in that same vicinity with far more assets. So by itself, it is only incremental. Combined with other technologies is where the risk-of-the-unknown increases.

One other note, though, the Kuznetsov-style carrier is a proven technology. Its potential is more limited than our catapult-solution, but it is a solid starting point for them.

 

[T.Lex]

More sabre-rattling.

South China Sea: China media warn US over 'confrontation' - BBC News

Blocking China from islands it has built in contested waters would lead to "devastating confrontation", Chinese state media have warned.
The angry response came after secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson said the US should deny Beijing access to new islands in the South China Sea.
Two state-run papers carry editorials strongly criticising his comments.
The hawkish Global Times tabloid warned that any such action would lead to "a large-scale war".

 

[T.Lex]

Words of war waxing...

China hits back at US over South China Sea claims - BBC News

The new US president has taken a tough stance against China, and Mr Spicer told reporters "the US is going to make sure we protect our interests" in the South China Sea.
"If those islands are, in fact, in international waters and not part of China proper, yeah, we'll make sure we defend international interests from being taken over by another country," he said, without giving further details.

The Chinese government responded by saying that the US was "not a party to the South China Sea issue".

Highlighted part is, to me, very reminiscent of Obama's formulation of, "If Syria is proven to use chemical weapons, then that's a red line."

And for the administration to not already know whether those man-made islands are in international waters is laughable.

 

[T.Lex]

Looks like a P-3C and a Chinese AWACS came within a few hundred yards of each other in the SCS.

U.S., Chinese military planes in 'unsafe' encounter over disputed South China Sea | The Japan Times

That's not SUPER close, but those aircraft aren't really super maneuverable either. Plus, it brings up the 2001 knock-down of an Orion that kinda gets forgotten because of what happened later that year.

 

[Thor]

They have overstepped their capabilities and have made it a criminal offense for any of their politicos to step back from their claims of sovereignty. The Japanese islands that they claim may be the flashpoint, the Japs are pushing back and we have a self defense treaty with them. IF this went down, and everyone else in the neighborhood stayed out of it the conflict MIGHT remain conventional.

I think the change of administration has them looking over their shoulder wondering why they are where they are.

 

[Kutnupe14]

They have overstepped their capabilities and have made it a criminal offense for any of their politicos to step back from their claims of sovereignty. The Japanese islands that they claim may be the flashpoint, the Japs are pushing back and we have a self defense treaty with them. IF this went down, and everyone else in the neighborhood stayed out of it the conflict MIGHT remain conventional.

I think the change of administration has them looking over their shoulder wondering why they are where they are.

Doubtful, Trump just threw in the towel and now accepts the "One China" policy.

 

[BugI02]

But I thought the greatest concern was that my iPhone be as cheap as possible. You mean I have to think about what they might do with all that money?

 

[Thor]

Doubtful, Trump just threw in the towel and now accepts the "One China" policy.

Well, it was right when I said it. They are now placated somewhat no doubt.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Well, it was right when I said it. They are now placated somewhat no doubt.

I imagine they are. It's still unknown if this will bear any fruit.

 

[T.Lex]

US nuclear-powered carrier enters South China Sea - Global Times

US carrier force to the SCS.

Trump flexing muscle in his first hundred days.

 

[Thor]

The ChiComs are now putting buildings with 'retractable roofs' on the islands. They are putting in SAM systems. Now that they have claimed ownership of the islands as traditional Chinese territory, and after these SAMs become operational the next logical step is for them to declare an ADIZ over the entire area.

We are rapidly reaching the stage of international relations when everyone starts pushing everyone else and making rude noises. It's going to look like the wedding in "Evil Roy Slade". Starting at 3:44 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5LOftuElO0

 

[Thor]

According to the ROC Central News Agency the Taiwan Ministry of Defense has deployed Patriot PAC-3 missiles to eastern Taiwan. Their armed forces will conduct routine patrols, AF training, and Joint air-naval exercises to 'enhance their ability to protect the fishing rights and safety of Taiwanese fishermen in the South China Sea'. The Ministry of Defense report noted that this was done in response to "the rapid increase in China's military spending". They stated that Taiwan has adopted a "live-fire" model for military training and drills.

 

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