Coronavirus II

[maxwelhse]

Hubei province (capital city - Wuhan) has a population of about 60M people. Even just assuming 50% infection rate (absurdly low IMHO), that's 30M infected. Using a conservative 3% mortality, that's about 900k dead.

They've reported like, 80k infected and 3k dead? Yeah right.

I mean, it is totally possible with ruthless lockdown measures, but killing enough people to make that effective should get added into the body count.

It's totally possible that they just shoot anyone in the head that sneezes too, therefore totally legitimate infection data could be reported.

 

[Alpo]

Hubei province (capital city - Wuhan) has a population of about 60M people. Even just assuming 50% infection rate (absurdly low IMHO), that's 30M infected. Using a conservative 3% mortality, that's about 900k dead.

They've reported like, 80k infected and 3k dead? Yeah right.

I mean, it is totally possible with ruthless lockdown measures, but killing enough people to make that effective should get added into the body count.

Total infections of over 1 million are what I would expect...at a minimum. More likely 3 to 4 million over the course of this year.

But sometimes data is just data.

 

[Route 45]

I am, mostly, just going to play devil's advocate here since there is only a marginal argument to be made that cash is not king. But, I'm gonna make it.

The depreciation on a $13,000 car with 3 year bumper-to-bumper warranty and a 5 year powertrain warranty is actually a pretty acceptable loss, IMO. At a glance, a 5 year old Spark is $7k. So for $100/mo you have a written guarantee that the thing is going to start and likely drive for 5 years and get you were you need to go with good fuel economy on top of that. People legitimately pay more than that for an extended warranty on a used car (which is a different topic).

Then the issue arises of opportunity cost. Let's say I go out tomorrow and buy a used car with cash. I own the car outright, so good for me. However, I no longer have access to that cash and it's now tied up in a different depreciating asset that I'm still required to own (because if you need a car, you need a car) so I can't just sell it and get my money back. What happens if I need to buy food? Or pay for housing? My cash is sitting in the driveway. However, if I only obligate myself to a small monthly payment, I can stretch my cash far, far, further into the future. Since it costs me $0 in interest to do that, it would be silly not to hang on to my cash as long as possible. Over a 7 year time span, there's every reason in the world to believe that the cash I have on hand could actually double itself if invested wisely (especially in this garbage market... we're approaching the point where up or total failure will be the only two options). If this all went perfectly, you could have a free car out of the deal.

Then there's the issue of inflation. Even in good times, inflation is about 2% annually. So, if I drive the car all 7 years of the loan (which would personally be my plan, and beyond) I make the compound rate of 2% APY on the loan, which comes out to about 2 grand. If you're a believer that inflation is going to go through the roof, Carter style, then you could actually make good money by holding that loan to fruition and have an asset that you needed anyhow at the end of it.

A 7 year old Spark is probably still worth $2500 (call it $2k in today's money for the inflation). So... Just looking at without the crazy times inflation that might come, you have a vehicle to drive for 5 years with very little concern about, and another 2 just winging it, for a cost of about $9k in today's money, and you got to keep your cash on hand that entire time for "what if". Seems like a decent deal to me.

Sooo... That's where my mind is at and where my logic is coming from. Personally, the scale of risk would swing radically away from my comfort zone for anything much more expensive than a Spark. I wouldn't even consider applying this to an $80k truck unless I had a similar scale of cash behind me that I do for a Spark and I actually needed an asset that expensive to generate income. The only income I generate with a car is hauling my butt to work, so, a Spark would do.

This is the smart way of looking at it. The only thing I would disagree with is...a Chevy Spark. Really?

If I ever get to where I couldn't afford $150-200 a month for a new car, I've got bigger things to worry about than a repo on my credit report.

 

[maxwelhse]

This is the smart way of looking at it. The only thing I would disagree with is...a Chevy Spark. Really?

If I ever get to where I couldn't afford $150-200 a month for a new car, I've got bigger things to worry about than a repo on my credit report.

My current daily is a 25 year old Escort wagon (which is the bomb, btw). I see no reason to spend big money on a dent catching, collision magnet, salt monster in northern Indiana. I'd rather spend my money on more entertaining cars that are intended only for entertainment. I've actually already decided that the Escort is too expensive/nice to be the salt catcher so I have a 23 year old rusty AF Blazer waiting in the wings for that...

I've had expensive cars and I've had beaters. Beaters win, hands down, for toin' and fromin' a single body around.

Also agree with the payments being the last of my problems if I couldn't make them. I'd be living in the thing already at that point.

 

[jkaetz]

Ehh... Depends on how you look at it. If you've got to have a car anyhow, and you could use a replacement, and you're buying on the "responsible" end of the pricing scale, it's pretty hard to argue against. Especially if you're a believer that hyper inflation is coming soon. You put half down on a Spark and you've got a $75/mo car payment, for a brand new car with a warranty, that gets 30 city/38hwy, with a 0% interest loan. Most people pay more than that for their cable and phone bills. I do.

If you were moving out of, say, an SUV that perhaps was an affordable luxury 2 months ago, but may not be so affordable soon, there's solid logic in doing it.

Do I suggest anyone go take out a 7 year loan on an optioned our Caddy or Silverado? NO!

Your issue doesn't sound like a problem with the loan so much as the cost of said vehicles. If 0% over 84 months is good for a cheap car it is also good for an expensive one, even if said expensive one isn't a wise purchase.

Or you could just save up and pay cash for a 2-3 year old used car and let some other schmuck eat the depreciation while you're left without a car payment.

That way your not stuck trying to make payments when the economy gets shut down and cash flow drops due to some virus. (The universal you, not necessarily you personally.)

But hey, what are the odds of something like that happening, right?

If the sale price of both vehicles is equal, then the 0% interest offer is better even if you can simply pay cash. Invest the cash and even if it only makes 2%/year over the 7 years that's a bonus over paying in a lump sum and saving/investing the equivalent monthly payment + the equivalent interest.

 

[BugI02]

What I posted was directly quoted by the doctor who ran the experiment,where did you get it came from China?
From the article you originally posted at the very end of it.

Not quite, the doctor that ran the experiment was Stephen Smith. The doctor you have quoted was an procedurally uninvolved medical expert from Vanderbilt

Same cite:

“It’s going to send a ripple of excitement out through the treating community,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University. “I think it will reinforce the inclination of many people across the country who are not in a position to enter their patients into clinical trials but have already begun using hydroxychloroquine.”


The Times notes that Dr. Schaffner “cautioned that the results applied only to patients with relatively mild illness, like the ones in the study, and could not be generalized to advanced cases.”

Please note the disconnect, it is Schaffner's judgement that the patients involved had mild illness, Dr Smith was talking about patients that he clearly expected some percentage would proceed to intubation but did not. I don't see why Schaffner would consider such cases mild, they were already hospitalized

 

[bluewraith]

Howard County blocks purchase of nonessential goods | Covid-19 | kokomoperspective.com

I don't see that ending well for Kokomo

County allows nonessential purchases at essential businesses | Covid-19 | kokomoperspective.com

Non-essential purchase ban has been lifted. That didn't last long.

 

[BugI02]

The Chinese are lying. Any cut at the data for a Northern Hemisphere population with 13 cities over 10 million and the lowest infection rate experience by other countries would put their infection total, at a minimum, over 250,000 and more likely double or treble that level.

Peruse the Time (of all people) article upthread (it's in a reply to a smokingman post) I posted about the trustworthyness of their figures

 

[maxwelhse]

Your issue doesn't sound like a problem with the loan so much as the cost of said vehicles. If 0% over 84 months is good for a cheap car it is also good for an expensive one, even if said expensive one isn't a wise purchase.

Mostly, yes and a little no. The depreciation, in pure dollars, of a more expensive vehicle is enough to talk me out of it. Losing $50k on an $80k truck over 7 years isn't something I could accept.

Now... If I needed that truck to make me money, then that's what I need and that's all there is to it, so that's where I'm in agreement with you. If you're going to buy it regardless, 0% is a good deal.

 

[smokingman]

Not quite, the doctor that ran the experiment was Stephen Smith. The doctor you have quoted was an procedurally uninvolved medical expert from Vanderbilt

Same cite:


Please note the disconnect, it is Schaffner's judgement that the patients involved had mild illness, Dr Smith was talking about patients that he clearly expected some percentage would proceed to intubation but did not. I don't see why Schaffner would consider such cases mild, they were already hospitalized

My mistake on them being a part of the study,but they do not have anything to do with the Chinese.

On another note.

https://abc30.com/laredo-texas-coronavirus-wearing-masks-covid-19/6070888/
[h=1]$1,000 fine to residents caught without a mask in Texas city[/h]

 

[Alpo]

Peruse the Time (of all people) article upthread (it's in a reply to a smokingman post) I posted about the trustworthyness of their figures

Not to be irascible, but there have been so many errors in the data cited on this particular disease.....on these pages, for cryin' out loud....that I've stopped reading any of them.

I really don't appreciate the scattergun technique employed here by some (not you). If it is worth citing, then it ought to be at least worth standing behind. Perhaps we've become too accustomed to citing bull**** in politics that we've allowed ourselves to accept bull**** on every subject.

 

[tbhausen]

As long as we can still pick up the phone and order a pizza or whatever, I’m afraid a lot of us just aren’t getting it. When all the food delivery is shut down, then the **** will really hit the fan at the grocery stores. I’m seriously considering doubling up my provisions starting today or tomorrow.

 

[Dead Duck]

https://abc7.com/officials-engineer...8MkFGtLvvyxGT4hf3MMXWM_DRJAX8o2rTx29mtzfQJeKg
Prosecutors: Engineer deliberately ran train off tracks in attempt to smash the USNS Mercy


What the actual F?

We got lucky.

Just think of all the damage he could have done if trains had steering wheels.

 

[tbhausen]

Check this out:

https://www.augasonfarms.com/

I’ve got about a month worth of the stuff… Wish I had a lot more.

 

[Rookie]

County allows nonessential purchases at essential businesses | Covid-19 | kokomoperspective.com

Non-essential purchase ban has been lifted. That didn't last long.

I wonder if the change was a result of a lot of pissed off people speaking their minds.

 

[Alpo]

We got lucky.

Just think of all the damage he could have done if trains had steering wheels.

 

[maxwelhse]

We got lucky.

Just think of all the damage he could have done if trains had steering wheels.

I'm positive the US Navy has been attacked via train before, but I'm willing to bet money this is the first time they've been attacked by a train.

 

[maxwelhse]

Check this out:

https://www.augasonfarms.com/

I’ve got about a month worth of the stuff… Wish I had a lot more.

Coming up on a month ago I ordered a few things from My Patriot Supply to help support a YouTuber I enjoy and they had a 10 week shipping backlog then.

 

[JettaKnight]

As long as we can still pick up the phone and order a pizza or whatever, I’m afraid a lot of us just aren’t getting it. When all the food delivery is shut down, then the **** will really hit the fan at the grocery stores. I’m seriously considering doubling up my provisions starting today or tomorrow.

So instead of relatively safe, non-contact food delivery, we make everyone go to the grocery at roughly the same time to fight it out in the frozen food isle. And send another couple of thousand people into the unemployment line.

 

[smokingman]

Check this out:

https://www.augasonfarms.com/

I’ve got about a month worth of the stuff… Wish I had a lot more.

I have quite a bit as well. They have been great people to do business with. I started ordering from them for some items back in 2010.