Ebola on the horizon?

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  • T.Lex

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    Amen!

    http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=49290#.VGDKQ8np0nU
    “The rate of new Ebola cases shows encouraging signs of slowing in some of the hardest-hit parts of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone — and that's good news. The full-scale international strategy to attack Ebola through safe burials, treatment facilities and community mobilization is paying dividends,” the Secretary-General confirmed in an op-ed published in today's The Washington Post.
    ...

    Recent frontline reports from Guinea and Liberia, in fact, suggest significant decreases in infection rates across many affected areas, fuelling hopes that the target may be within reach.
     

    88GT

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    New, revise, retroactive numbers for West Africa:

    DateTotal
    CasesDeaths
    4-Nov-1413,2005,275
    2-Nov-1413,0145,191
    30-Oct-1412,6475,087
    24-Oct-1411,8685,026

    I think the revisions went back before then, at least in terms of deaths.

    But, it appears that the virus lethality is decreasing along with the rate of growth. Cases doubled since approx. Sept. 23 (6+ weeks ago). Deaths doubled since approx. Sept. 13.

    Given the lack of spread in the US and other "western" countries (knock on wood), instead of millions of infections, we may be seeing this outbreak grind to a halt.
    My concern is for the still unexplained transmission to health care workers.
     

    T.Lex

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    My concern is for the still unexplained transmission to health care workers.

    Yeah, but I figure that is slowing down, as well.

    Also, keep in mind, they thought this thing died down (pardon the pun) back in the Spring. It didn't. So, given the timing, there's still reason for concern through the end of the year. IMHO.
     

    T.Lex

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    haha

    Yeah, but what a stress test for the US emergency medical system!

    Keep in mind, it is still 'on the horizon.'
     

    bwframe

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    Have we stopped flights from the impacted countries? So it is still possible for more cases to pop up.

    Franklin Graham (Billy's boy) has suggested that the free market has already done this with commercial flights. They don't want anything to do with infecting their own, let alone the press of infecting the US. The only flights in and out of those countries are charters.
     

    printcraft

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    Im not dead yet


    i-m-not-dead-yet-o.gif
     

    T.Lex

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    So in the span of a couple months we've moved from "very unlikely to happen here" to "certain to happen again."

    Oof.
     

    T.Lex

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    This is most surprising to me, and perhaps I should say impressive.

    Mali due to declare 108 Ebola-free after quarantine | Reuters

    In a recurring theme for this outbreak.... not so fast. :/

    Mali has another case, a nurse:
    UPDATE 2-Mali quarantines dozens after Ebola kills second victim | Reuters
    Authorities in Mali quarantined dozens of people on Wednesday at the home of a 25-year-old nurse who died from Ebola in the capital, Bamako, and at the clinic where he treated an imam from Guinea who died with Ebola-like symptoms.

    The imam from the border town of Kouremale was never tested for the disease and his body was washed in Mali and returned to Guinea for burial without precautions against the virus.


    Two aid workers said that another person who lived in the house where the imam stayed in Bamako had died this week and was buried without being tested.
     

    medcoxo

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    Most flights do not come direct from Africa to the US. No really good way to stop the spread.. I think this is how we got the new Planet Of The Apes series..
     
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