Donald Rainwater for Governor

[Cameramonkey]

Indiana governor election 2016

Republican (Holcomb) gets 51.4% of the vote. Democrat gets 45.4% of the vote

Let's say those aggregate percentages remain the same, and Rainwater comes on strong to overtake Holcomb

If Rainwater gets 26% of the vote to Holcomb's 25.4%, who becomes governor? Not Rainwater or Holcomb. What you need to ask yourself is, do you think Rainwater can exceed that 50% of the vote you're talking about; or more broadly, which of those two is more likely to exceed 50% of the available vote?

Or more simply, "Do you feel lucky, ..."

The only flaw in your calculation is that you are making the assumption that ZERO dems jump ship and ALL Rainwater votes are taken from Holcomb. We cant quantify a number yet, but to assume Meyers keeps 100% of his voters is incorrect. Its not that cut and dried.

 

[churchmouse]

How often (realistically) will a dem jump ship.....

Ross Peroe.

 

[BugI02]

The only flaw in your calculation is that you are making the assumption that ZERO dems jump ship and ALL Rainwater votes are taken from Holcomb. We cant quantify a number yet, but to assume Meyers keeps 100% of his voters is incorrect. Its not that cut and dried.

So, what percentage of democratic voters do you think actually believe in individual responsibility enough to be drawn to vote for a Libertarian? I'm sure a few exist, but likely not many

Edit: And the really important question is can Rainwater attract enough of the vote to go over 50%? If not you're pursuing a pyrrhic victory

 

[bwframe]

Rainwater could get some of the stoner dem vote. Just sayin'...

 

[Mark-DuCo]

So, what percentage of democratic voters do you think actually believe in individual responsibility enough to be drawn to vote for a Libertarian? I'm sure a few exist, but likely not many

Edit: And the really important question is can Rainwater attract enough of the vote to go over 50%? If not you're pursuing a pyrrhic victory

If everyone truly voted for the person who they liked the most I think Rainwater could easily break 50%. Sadly most people are stuck in the "I have to vote for A so B doesn't win" mentality, even though both A and B suck farts.

 

[churchmouse]

If everyone truly voted for the person who they liked the most I think Rainwater could easily break 50%. Sadly most people are stuck in the "I have to vote for A so B doesn't win" mentality, even though both A and B suck farts.

Not stuck my friend. Cautious. Very cautious. Throwing my vote to the winds may also suck farts

 

[jamil]

I'll happily vote for this gent, IF HE CAN WIN.

If he pulls that Andy Horning bull of not gracefully bowing out only to split the R vote, damn him along with Andy.

I hope Rainwater can have the dignity that most third party ****s have not had in recent times.

Bow out? Why? Rainwater is not a Republican. Andy Horning, was/is not a Republican. Why do you keep insisting that Libertarians should be good Republicans?

I mean think about your reasoning here. Why not just ask the Democrats to bow out so that the Republican will win. It’s pretty much the same concept.
Dignity?

 

[jamil]

It's a great line to leave it for the primaries when the party suppresses the primaries.

That’s the problem with primaries. Ranked choice FTW!

 

[BugI02]

That’s the problem with primaries. Ranked choice FTW!

It would make the most sense, and have the most immediate effect, to roll that out in the primaries

 

[Cameramonkey]

I'll happily vote for this gent, IF HE CAN WIN.

.

you know that makes as much sense as “I’ll only buy a lottery ticket if I can win.”

cant win if you don’t play. Just like he can’t win if you don’t vote for him.

 

[BugI02]

you know that makes as much sense as “I’ll only buy a lottery ticket if I can win.”

cant win if you don’t play. Just like he can’t win if you don’t vote for him.

I disagree. It is more like preferring to play a lottery game with a 1 in 100 chance to win over one with a 1 in 1 million chance

 

[04FXSTS]

I just found out through this thread today that Rainwater is a libertarian, I kept thinking he was a republican that wanted to jump in without going through the primary. I have voted libertarian when I was young and idealistic but that was quite a few years ago. Even then I knew the libertarian would not win but hoped I would help make a statement that would infulence upcomming elections. WRONG!!! It didn't work then and it won't work now. Jim.

 

[Jaybird1980]

Well I scored 50-50 so what the hell am I. I don't think there is enough detail in the questions to be accurate.

Yes I'm late to the party.

 

[Cameramonkey]

I disagree. It is more like preferring to play a lottery game with a 1 in 100 chance to win over one with a 1 in 1 million chance

No matter, either way the point is you cant win if you dont play. If you dont play, you have a 100% chance of losing. Odds are better either way if you do play.

Well I scored 50-50 so what the hell am I. I don't think there is enough detail in the questions to be accurate.

Yes I'm late to the party.

You are a centrist.

And there is a longer quiz based on how you scored you cant take to learn more. That quiz is just supposed to put you into the ballpark. And in most cases, the vast majority of people land somewhere in Libertarian land. Its designed to point out only that you are probably not aligned with the correct party and are voting based on old ideas. (Voting for your party based on old habit, not what your actual views are. )

 

[bwframe]

I'm trying hard to be a good proponent for Rainwater. If he cannot poll well enough to show any possibility of a win when the election is close, NO WAY I will help him split the R vote to risk a D win.

If the polls show Rainwater cannot contend, he should gracefully bail out. That could well seal the deal for him the next run at governor or possibly another office.

We remember the six years of Donnelly, right?

 

[churchmouse]

Well I scored 50-50 so what the hell am I. I don't think there is enough detail in the questions to be accurate.

Yes I'm late to the party.

That test is like a poll you gat on the phone. The questions are just way too basic and skewed.

 

[churchmouse]

I'm trying hard to be a good proponent for Rainwater. If he cannot poll well enough to show any possibility of a win when the election is close, NO WAY I will help him split the R vote to risk a D win.

If the polls show Rainwater cannot contend, he should gracefully bail out. That could well seal the deal for him the next run at governor or possibly another office.

We remember the six years of Donnelly, right?

Ross Peroe

 

[Cameramonkey]

That test is like a poll you gat on the phone. The questions are just way too basic and skewed.

Denial isnt just a river in Egypt.

 

[bwframe]

Exactly what I'm saying. If Peroe would have bowed out the first election, when it was clear that he could not possibly win, he might well have gained the respect to win the next one.

Instead, Peroe's legacy is just a foolish third party nut job, (who brought us the Clintons.)

 

[Cameramonkey]

I'm trying hard to be a good proponent for Rainwater. If he cannot poll well enough to show any possibility of a win when the election is close, NO WAY I will help him split the R vote to risk a D win.

If the polls show Rainwater cannot contend, he should gracefully bail out. That could well seal the deal for him the next run at governor or possibly another office.

We remember the six years of Donnelly, right?

Given his extreme slips in the polls, Holcomb should be a good sport and cancel his campaign and bow out now. Its the graceful thing to do. I'm sure Rainwater could find a place for him in his administration.