Coronovirus III

[tv1217]

Word is a direct co-worker of mine got corona and he's on a ventilator. Young guy, late 30s I think.

 

[Vigilant]

Yup. Google here I come.

Kinda like the full meal deal. Conditions that occur along with a primary condition. Obesity, with sides of heart disease, and diabetes. At least that’s how I unnerstan it?

 

[Snapdragon]

Co = together, morbidity = cause of death, so it's things that act together to cause death.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

AMEN! People think they can eat and live badly because the doctor will give them that miracle drug and cure their problem and they'll get better. Same thing weve done with welfare. We've encouraged poor people (mostly lazy people) who cant afford kids to breed like rabbits, because not only do we pay for everything up to and including the birth, but also feeding their spawn and hell even give them cash too.
So stupid.
The cycle continues.

How does it go? Good times make for weak men; weak men make for difficult times; etc...

For most of the 20th and 21st centuries, we’ve had it so good, we’ve had to invent most of our problems. Food has been plentiful and cheap. Even with all we hear about kids going hungry and food banks being busy (we can’t keep our blessings boxes at church filled, they empty out so fast), it seems like most of the kids I see nowadays are rolly-polly fat. Even adults, you can tell hardly have a pot to **** in, are morbidly obese.

We’ve had it so good, for so long, we now expect to sit home while the government pays our bills and feeds us rather than having to get out there and sacrifice for our families.

 

[Snapdragon]

And in other news... Grain of salt because I am not familiar with this source, but did we know this?

21 million Chinese died of coronavirus – US intelligence officials intercept data
​

https://web.archive.org/web/20200406190917/https://n5ti.com/health/1233/

 

[Phase2]

Kinda like the full meal deal. Conditions that occur along with a primary condition. Obesity, with sides of heart disease, and diabetes. At least that’s how I unnerstan it?

Comorbidity- derived from morbidity (a diseased state), so a secondary condition.

Comorbidities are conditions that put additional stress on your body that allow the Wuhan coronavirus to push you over the edge. Obesity is associated with multiple conditions (heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, sleep apnea and breathing problems, etc) that are considered comorbidities that make you more likely to succumb to the virus.

 

[Phase2]

And in other news... Grain of salt because I am not familiar with this source, but did we know this?

21 million Chinese died of coronavirus – US intelligence officials intercept data
​

https://web.archive.org/web/20200406190917/https://n5ti.com/health/1233/

I heard that info before and it makes some sense. However, as far as I can tell it doesn't discount the number of people that would have died without the Wuhan coronavirus.

 

[qwerty]

I have added an additional sheet titled "US/Sweden Death based on Population" at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml
The page looks at the totals based on each country's population for deaths total and deaths by day. The numbers come from worldometers which do have their issues, but it is the best we have when looking from a "10,000 ft view".

Sweden has taken a more conservative approach and have only discouraged groups of 50 or more, kept Grade Schools in session, have asked the elderly and those who are sick to remain home but restaurants and businesses remain open: https://apnews.com/9feffbdb9bf2421f40f26ae89bc56b6c

As always, other stats and mapping are updated regularly at: https://twnwi.com/

 

[T.Lex]

Only appropriate that I follow up a qwerty post.

Skipped everything until this page. I know we were having an interesting discussion last Friday, perhaps the conversation will return that direction.

Until then, some unfrozen caveman numbers.

- Yesterday was a good day, death wise - lowest in about a week. Which is a bit of a problem, actually. I noticed a pattern: the reports of deaths on Sunday were among the lowest. That goes back a few weeks. So, I suspect that it is more about how many staff are working, reporting deaths, than actual deaths-on-Sunday.

- The average death/day since 3/31 is about 1,450. The trailing 5 day average is ~1,850. But, the good part of that is that it is still pretty stable there.

- Dealing with percentages - the average daily percentage increase in total deaths has been below its trendline since about 4/2. That's another indicator that we're not in exponential growth mode. The percentage increase day-over-day has also been below its trendline for a few days, and that trendline continues to angle downward.

- The troubling mortality rate continues to increase. Just a shade under 4%. I'll explain another angle as to why that's troubling for me. Let's assume the mortality rate is actually much lower. Let's say 2%. And let's round the deaths down to 22,000 COVID-related. That means that there are/have been approximately 1.1 Million people actually infected. Heck, let's discount the deaths by ~10% down to 20,000. That's a million infected. And we've only found about half of them. Now, some percentage of them have recovered with no or only mild symptoms. But, for awhile - and perhaps still - others were/are infected by them. Sure, that's helping to contribute to herd immunity, and is a great argument in favor of antibody testing to examine what might really be the infection rate, but it still means hundreds of thousands of carriers out there.

Happy Easter Monday everyone.

 

[Hkindiana]

I heard that info before and it makes some sense. However, as far as I can tell it doesn't discount the number of people that would have died without the Wuhan coronavirus.

Yes it does, out of 21 million deaths it says:

“The Intelligence report stated that at least 20.9 million of the deaths were linked to coronavirus”

So, .1 million died of other reasons

 

[jamil]

IN!


Jeez. 15 hours old and it's already 3 40-post pages in.

 

[jamil]

Only appropriate that I follow up a qwerty post.

Skipped everything until this page. I know we were having an interesting discussion last Friday, perhaps the conversation will return that direction.

Until then, some unfrozen caveman numbers.

- Yesterday was a good day, death wise - lowest in about a week. Which is a bit of a problem, actually. I noticed a pattern: the reports of deaths on Sunday were among the lowest. That goes back a few weeks. So, I suspect that it is more about how many staff are working, reporting deaths, than actual deaths-on-Sunday.

- The average death/day since 3/31 is about 1,450. The trailing 5 day average is ~1,850. But, the good part of that is that it is still pretty stable there.

- Dealing with percentages - the average daily percentage increase in total deaths has been below its trendline since about 4/2. That's another indicator that we're not in exponential growth mode. The percentage increase day-over-day has also been below its trendline for a few days, and that trendline continues to angle downward.

- The troubling mortality rate continues to increase. Just a shade under 4%. I'll explain another angle as to why that's troubling for me. Let's assume the mortality rate is actually much lower. Let's say 2%. And let's round the deaths down to 22,000 COVID-related. That means that there are/have been approximately 1.1 Million people actually infected. Heck, let's discount the deaths by ~10% down to 20,000. That's a million infected. And we've only found about half of them. Now, some percentage of them have recovered with no or only mild symptoms. But, for awhile - and perhaps still - others were/are infected by them. Sure, that's helping to contribute to herd immunity, and is a great argument in favor of antibody testing to examine what might really be the infection rate, but it still means hundreds of thousands of carriers out there.

Happy Easter Monday everyone.

Was that the "people who say 'Wuhan Virus' are racists" conversation? Or was that yesterday?

 

[T.Lex]

Was that the "people who say 'Wuhan Virus' are racists" conversation? Or was that yesterday?

Oh my. Sounds like things got salty.

No - I'm avoiding those conversations, because wrapped up in all the very important layers of what's happening, there are some irrelevant layers. That's one of them. Frankly, the number of dead people in China is also one.

No, I was referencing the mortality rate issue.

 

[Rookie]

.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

So how do we reconcile the liberal classifications of death due to CV? Based on Birk’s comments late last week, whether she meant to or not, it certainly smells like they’re now trying to pad the numbers to avoid another downward “adjustment”.

I’ve also noticed that for even a 4% mortality rate, the # recovered hasn’t started to spike yet. I can only assume part of that is the recovery times are extended and will lag the death rates by a considerable length of time...not to mention, do we have a definition of “recovered”?

 

[jamil]

Oh my. Sounds like things got salty.

No - I'm avoiding those conversations, because wrapped up in all the very important layers of what's happening, there are some irrelevant layers. That's one of them. Frankly, the number of dead people in China is also one.

No, I was referencing the mortality rate issue.

Are you talking about the increasing mortality rate as things are leveling off?

I think that makes sense for a couple of reasons. 1) the people who are dying now are people who got sick during the peak and are now succumbing to it. 2) The recently loosened guidelines for determining the cause of death was covid-19. That's gotta inflate the mortality numbers, though to what extent is unclear.

About that. I think the old way of determining was better. Regardless of underlying conditions, if the person would have lived had they not contracted the virus, is reasonably attributable to covid-19. But dying while having covid-19 is not necessarily "contributing". If they die for whatever reason, and they tested positive for covid-19, but were asymptomatic--most importantly, no lung infection--then covid-19 is no where near the cause of that death.

 

[drillsgt]

QUOTE=hoosierdoc;8260459]well it's not a hoax. but certainly an over reaction and full of bad moves

I say that in reference to the reaction, not the virus.

I an certain some will call me conspiracy minded but will take that criticism if I'm wrong. Here is where I am at this point in the story as simply as I can put it:

The Chinese communist party was losing control, the people were restless (think Hong Kong protests) and they needed to get control back in hand. Their economy was in bad shape and they have a huge number of old they were carrying that were very costly to them. I suspect they may have started this to ease those issues. They tried to hide all this by giving incorrect numbers and downplaying the severity of the virus to cover this up.

Then the UN and WHO were incentivized to assist in the cover up further distorting the severity of the virus. China has enormous economic leverage on much of the world.

The so called American media, you know, the conglomerates that want a piece of the China markets, were enticed to further this along. It was a twofer for them, get access to Chinese markets and get Trump simultaneously. The democrats jumped on the opportunity to get Trump from the ashes of their failed impeachment. This is was when Trump called them out on their "hoax" to get him, not the seriousness of the virus.

Then it worked out that the major media operations are in the hardest hit area of the country, NY, so they fearmongered the entire country to do what NY needed to do.

That to me is where we are. Other viruses have been similarly bad but we never have done even a token of what has been prescribed for this.

The fallout from this will kill millions and impoverish billions. That is nothing short of a crime against humanity...

I was typing this post when the lights went out...[/QUOTE]

The media got lucky this time unlike with H1N1 where they had to protect Obama and buried the coverage, this time they were under no such constraints and are relishing it.

 

[jamil]

So how do we reconcile the liberal classifications of death due to CV? Based on Birk’s comments late last week, whether she meant to or not, it certainly smells like they’re now trying to pad the numbers to avoid another downward “adjustment”.

I’ve also noticed that for even a 4% mortality rate, the # recovered hasn’t started to spike yet. I can only assume part of that is the recovery times are extended and will lag the death rates by a considerable length of time...not to mention, do we have a definition of “recovered”?

I think some are calling "recovered" as discharged from the hospital. Some are calling it no longer testing positive for the virus. Either way, I think recovery peak will lag mortality peak by weeks. I think I've read that the people who will have the auto-immune response will start 5 or so days from when they first started having symptoms. And from there things progress fairly rapidly, and then they die. But it can take 3-6 weeks to recover, depending how they determine "recovered".

 

[JTScribe]

What's that saying about interesting times?

https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...s/news-story/3b2d4c044f76821940643eb62cfc5f62

 

[hoosierdoc]

T lex most countries at most are detecting 10-15% of their cases but all of their mortality.